Search results for " cyclicality of bank profits"

The Cyclicality of Bank Credit Losses and Capital Ratios under Expected Loss Model

2023

We model the evolution of stylised bank loan portfolios to assess the impact of IFRS 9 and US GAAP expected loss model (ECL) on the cyclicality of loan loss provisions (LLPs), realised losses and capital ratios of banks, relative to the incurred loss model of IAS 39. We focus on the interaction between the changes in LLPs charges (the flow channel) and stocks (the stock channel) under ECL. Our results show that, when GDP growth doesn’t demonstrate high volatility, ECL model smooths the impact of credit losses on profits and capital resources, reducing the pro-cyclicality of capital and leverage ratios, especially under US GAAP. However, when GDP growth is highly volatile, the large differen…